SWODY1
SPC AC 240037
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CST FRI JAN 23 2009
VALID 240100Z - 241200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...ARKLATEX...
LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MOISTENING IS INCREASING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY
REGION AHEAD OF WEAK SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEAMPLIFYING OVER
WEST TX. BOTH SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST ELEVATED CONVECTION
IS EXPANDING ACROSS SRN AR INTO EXTREME NRN LA...HOWEVER LIGHTNING
HAS YET TO BE DETECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. 00Z SOUNDING FROM SHV
INDICATES PARCELS LIFTED JUST ABOVE 700MB ARE WEAKLY BUOYANT TO NEAR
400MB AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR UPRIGHT CONVECTION CAPABLE OF GENERATING LIGHTNING.
HOWEVER...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY IS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE THAN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDER WILL REMAIN LOW THIS
PERIOD.
...SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF APPROACHING SPEED MAX/SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERY NATURE TO THIS PRECIPITATION BUT CLOUD
DEPTHS SHOULD PROVE TOO SHALLOW TO WARRANT ANY MEANINGFUL THREAT OF
LIGHTNING.
..DARROW.. 01/24/2009
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