SWODY2
SPC AC 201651
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONSISTING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN
STATES AND A RIDGE IN THE WEST WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AND
TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE REGIME. THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC TO APPROACH CA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
...SRN CA THROUGH SRN AZ...
WV IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN IMPULSE OVER THE SE PACIFIC ABOUT 650
NM WEST OF THE BAJA AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY EJECT NE INTO THE
SW U.S. WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL REMAIN VERY DRY IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID LEVEL
ASCENT ATTENDING THE EJECTING IMPULSE AND MODERATELY STEEP 700-500
MB LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OTHER ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT FROM THE
CNTRL THROUGH SRN CA COASTAL AREAS WITHIN ZONE OF INCREASING FORCING
FOR ASCENT IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY THROUGH THE
CONVECTIVE LAYER FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
..DIAL.. 01/20/2009
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