SWODY2
SPC AC 231623
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2009
VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME E OF THE ROCKIES WILL FLATTEN TO SOME
DEGREE WITH PASSAGE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
IN THE W...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS MIDLEVEL TROUGH INTENSIFIES OVER
THE PACIFIC NW INTO GREAT BASIN. IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE COLD
FRONT INITIALLY FROM THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SWWD THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE MID/UPPER TX COAST WILL SAG SWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
BROAD RIDGE AXIS BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE OH
VALLEY.
...GREAT BASIN...
DYNAMIC COOLING/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES AND RESULTANT
DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. THIS DECREASING
STABILITY COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND INCREASING UVV AHEAD
OF TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.
...LOWER MS VALLEY...
WHILE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SAG SWD WITH TIME...850 MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL REMAIN LARGELY QUASI-STATIONARY...RESULTING IN AN
INCREASINGLY SHALLOW CHARACTER TO FRONT. STRENGTHENING
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG/N OF FRONTAL ZONE WILL SUPPORT SOME
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT UPDRAFTS WILL REMAIN TOO SHALLOW FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE THUNDER POTENTIAL.
..MEAD.. 01/23/2009
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