SWODY3
SPC AC 030701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0101 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS DURING THE
DAY THREE PERIOD AS LOW LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NRN MEXICO AND
PHASES WITH INTENSIFYING TROUGH DIGGING SEWD THROUGH THE NRN AND
CNTRL ROCKIES. AS THIS OCCURS...SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS WILL
SPREAD EWD FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD THE MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEYS.
IN THE LOW LEVELS...SURFACE FRONT INITIALLY STALLED ACROSS THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIFT NWD ONTO THE GULF COAST. BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP NEWD FROM THE NERN
GULF OF MEXICO INTO CNTRL GULF COAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT.
...GULF COAST STATES...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE
CNTRL/ERN GULF COAST MONDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF SURFACE LOW. ALONG
AND S OF THIS FRONT...DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
50S INTO LOWER 60S...CONTRIBUTING TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION.
STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG EXPANDING LLJ WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED TSTMS N OF SURFACE FRONT DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
PERIOD WITHIN ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS S OF THE RETREATING WARM FRONT SUGGEST THAT STORMS MAY
STILL BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WITHIN A ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS DUE TO WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES. THIS WILL TEND TO LIMIT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL DESPITE THE STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR.
THEREFORE...NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS
FORECAST.
..MEAD.. 01/03/2009
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