SWODY3
SPC AC 160719
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 AM CST FRI JAN 16 2009
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE MEAN RIDGE OVER W COAST --
ANCHORED BY ANTICYCLONE OVER NWRN WA/SWRN BC -- AND TROUGHING FROM
GREAT LAKES SWD ACROSS ERN APPALACHIANS. STG SHORTWAVE TROUGH --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER NRN BC AND WRN PORTION
OF NW TERRITORIES -- WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS UPPER MS AND OH VALLEYS
DAY-2. PERTURBATION THEN WILL PIVOT EWD FROM TN VALLEY REGION
ACROSS CAROLINAS/GA DAY-3...THEN OFFSHORE TIDEWATER REGION.
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFFSHORE TX COAST SEWD
OVER NWRN GULF EARLY IN PERIOD...WEAKENING/STALLING OVER W-CENTRAL
GULF WHILE MOVING EWD/SEWD OVER GA/FL/CAROLINAS.
...CENTRAL/ERN GULF COASTAL PLAIN...
MARITIME CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT -- INITIALLY
OVER NRN GULF WATERS AND LATER OVER GULF STREAM OF ATLANTIC -- WHERE
NEAR-SFC THETAE MAY OVERCOME WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT ENOUGH TO YIELD
VERTICALLY DEEP BUT THERMALLY NARROW BUOYANT PROFILE. SOME
NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INLAND FROM MS DELTA EWD ACROSS
FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA. PRIND FRONTAL ZONE WILL MOVE THROUGH TOO
QUICKLY TO ALLOW ROBUSTLY MODIFIED MARINE AIR MASS INLAND...WITH
WARM SECTOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT SVR THREAT.
..EDWARDS.. 01/16/2009
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