Sunday, January 25, 2009

DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 250820
SWODY3
SPC AC 250818

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2009

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS ON
TUESDAY. CONSIDERABLE MODEL GUIDANCE DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH
RESPECT TO THE TIMING/AMPLIFICATION OF THE PRIMARY NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAM IMPULSES...ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
RESPECTIVELY. REGARDLESS...CONSENSUS SUGGESTS A LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
ZONE SHOULD SHARPEN FROM PORTIONS OF NORTH TX/ARKLATEX TO THE
MID-SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON TUESDAY.

...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX/TENNESSEE VALLEY/MID-SOUTH...
AS A CONTINUATION OF MONDAY NIGHT TSTM POTENTIAL...PERSISTENCE OF
WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTM
POTENTIAL MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE. AMPLE SHEAR WILL EXIST WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR BENEATH 50-70 KT MID LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY FOR APPRECIABLE MOISTURE RETURN AND RESULTANT WEAK
INSTABILITY /FEW HUNDRED J PER KG MUCAPE OR LESS/ SHOULD
CONSIDERABLY HINDER SEVERE POTENTIAL.

..GUYER.. 01/25/2009

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