SWOD48
SPC AC 200933
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0333 AM CST TUE JAN 20 2009
VALID 231200Z - 281200Z
...DISCUSSION...
PATTERN TRANSITION DESCRIBED IN DAY-2/3 OUTLOOKS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN NET RETROGRESSION OF ERN CONUS
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND WRN RIDGE OVER NWRN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA RESPECTIVELY...ALONG WITH MORE SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE ACTION.
WEAK BUOYANCY MAY DEVELOP DAY-4/23RD-24TH OVER E TX OR ARKLATEX
REGION AMIDST PARTIALLY MODIFIED RETURN FLOW AIR MASS...AHEAD OF
FIRST SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...GIVEN EXPECTED WEAKENING OF
TROUGH IN CONFLUENT UPPER FLOW...AND LACK OF MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL
THETAE...SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO MRGL FOR OUTLOOK ATTM. HEIGHT
FALLS OVER ROCKIES MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS CENTRAL/SRN
PLAINS DAYS 5-7/24TH-27TH...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED GIVEN
PROGS OF UNFAVORABLE FRONTAL CHARACTER/ORIENTATION...AND OF WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT BOTH SFC AND ALOFT.
..EDWARDS.. 01/20/2009
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