SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031229
MNZ000-NDZ000-031630-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 AM CST SAT JAN 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND AND NWRN MN
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 031229Z - 031630Z
AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO ERN ND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...WITH RATES FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR POSSIBLE BY 15Z.
THEREAFTER...THIS HEAVIER SNOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD
ACROSS NWRN MN BY LATE MORNING.
AT 12Z...AN INVERTED TROUGH WITH REINFORCING ARCTIC AIR STRETCHED
FROM NORTH CENTRAL ND SSEWD INTO ERN SD. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WAS OCCURRING IN THE LOWER 4 KM OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. DESPITE VERY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN THE SINGLES DIGITS...THETA-E ADVECTION AND LIFTING ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT PW/S BETWEEN .4 AND .5 INCH. SINCE THE
AIR MASS INITIALLY WILL BE DRY...IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE
COLUMN TO SATURATE AND SNOW TO REACH THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED...LARGE SNOWFLAKES ARE LIKELY AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SNOWFLAKES DEVELOPING AROUND 600 MB...WITHIN THE
FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. HEAVIEST SNOW THROUGH THE MORNING
IS EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF INVERTED TROUGH ...WITHIN ZONE OF
STRONGEST FRONTOGENETIC LIFTING.
..IMY.. 01/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
LAT...LON 47409393 46109625 46209750 47129827 48479766 48929650
48509389 47409393
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