MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0008

ACUS11 KWNS 040030
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 040029
LAZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-040130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST SAT JAN 03 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN LA/FAR SERN AR/PART OF WRN MS AND SWD TO SERN
LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2...

VALID 040029Z - 040130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2 CONTINUES.

A FEW SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY PRODUCING HAIL...
THROUGH ABOUT 02Z ACROSS WW 02. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS PER
REGIONAL RADARS SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH 03Z...WITH WW POTENTIALLY BEING
CANCELLED EARLY BY THE LOCAL WFOS.

EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SERN
LA NWWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NWRN LA. THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING
HAS RESULTED IN A DECREASING TREND IN AVAILABLE INSTABILITY WITH
MLCAPE RANGING FROM 400-800 J/KG ACROSS ERN/SRN LA. THE CLUSTER OF
TSTMS THAT HAD DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL LA
HAS ALL BUT CEASED TO EXIST WITH ONE STORM MOVING EWD THROUGH NERN
LA. THE TRACK OF THIS STORM TOWARD A MORE STABLE AIR MASS SUGGESTS
THAT THIS STORM SHOULD DIMINISH IN INTENSITY.

ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF WW 02 WITHIN A WAA REGIME IN
THE VICINITY OF AND E OF THE SEWD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KT OVER SRN LA MAY SUPPORT A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS PRODUCING ISOLATED HAIL...BUT A FURTHER DECREASE IN
INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION.

..PETERS.. 01/04/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30769248 31399264 32079257 32669233 33019188 32989113
32439066 31359088 30859106 30249041 29879023 29489058
29659140 30769248

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