MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0017

ACUS11 KWNS 061053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061053
OHZ000-WVZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-061330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0453 AM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN IND AND OH...EXTREME NRN KY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 061053Z - 061330Z

FREEZING RAIN IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...AND HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ICING COULD PERSIST INTO MID/LATE MORNING.

HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL LIKELY REMAIN CUT-OFF FROM AREAS
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...FOCUSED JUST NORTH OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE...ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
JET...TO THE SOUTHEAST. BUT...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...ASSOCIATED WITH
A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMANATING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...IS GRADUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO DEEP LAYER SATURATION
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS OCCURRING COINCIDENT WITH
LOW-LEVEL WARMING/MOISTENING ABOVE A RESIDUAL SUB-FREEZING BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH PROBABLY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN...OR CHANGE-OVER FROM SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING
RAIN...BETWEEN NOW AND 14-16Z.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY LIGHT IN NATURE.
HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT RATES COULD OCCASIONALLY EXCEED .10
INCH LIQUID WATER EQUIVALENT PER HOUR...BEFORE FORCING WEAKENS AS
UPPER IMPULSE BECOMES INCREASINGLY SHEARED WITHIN A CONFLUENT
MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS COULD CONTRIBUTE
TO APPRECIABLE GLAZING OF EXPOSED OBJECTS AND MANY ROAD SURFACES...
PARTICULARLY NEAR/EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS AND CINCINNATI THROUGH AREAS
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR OF OHIO.

..KERR.. 01/06/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...

LAT...LON 40008607 40358559 40588453 40718250 40618102 39978081
38958172 38548274 38658398 38608523 39268592 39528597
40008607

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