MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0021

ACUS11 KWNS 070103
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070102
NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-070300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN AL THROUGH N CNTRL GA...WRN SC AND EXTREME SW
NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 3...4...

VALID 070102Z - 070300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 3...4...CONTINUES.

THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO
WILL PERSIST FROM SRN AL NEWD THROUGH N CNTRL GA AND EXTREME SW NC
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. OVERALL THREAT IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL AND WW 3
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 01Z...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

A LINE OF STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS AND
MESOCYCLONES EXTENDS FROM NE GA SWWD THROUGH SW AL. THE LINE IS
MOVING EAST AT AROUND 20 KT...WHILE INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE MORE
RAPIDLY NE. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN FOR STORMS TO DECREASE IN
INTENSITY...AND LIGHTNING HAS ALSO DIMINISHED DURING THE PAST HOUR.
A STRONG 50-60 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR
WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND LARGE LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL PROMOTE A
THREAT OF BOWING SEGMENTS...LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT EAST
OF THE ADVANCING LINE. THE 00Z RAOB FROM ATLANTA SHOWS VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY...5.6 C/KM 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AND A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION PRESENT NEAR 700 MB. THIS ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST IT WILL
PROBABLY REMAIN DIFFICULT FOR THE SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LINE TO DEEPEN AND INTENSIFY. THE DEEPER CONVECTION
WILL PROBABLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE ZONE OF STRONGER FORCING ALONG
THE LINE.

IF TRENDS BEGIN TO SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REINTENSIFY...ANOTHER WW
COULD BE NEEDED ACROSS SRN AL GIVEN THE FAVORABLE HODOGRAPHS AND
BULK SHEAR. OTHERWISE...AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 34308235 33388400 32558508 31558626 30598755 30728826
31368764 32658601 34108419 35108310 35458228 34308235

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