MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0022

ACUS11 KWNS 070304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 070304
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-070500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CST TUE JAN 06 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SE AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 070304Z - 070500Z

STORMS ALONG SRN END OF LINE ACROSS SW AL INTO THE N CNTRL GULF HAVE
UNDERGONE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST HOUR.
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

LATE THIS EVENING A SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM N CNTRL GA SWWD THROUGH
SW AL INTO THE N CNTRL GULF. LIGHTNING REMAINS INACTIVE ALONG MUCH
OF THE LINE. AN EXCEPTION IS ALONG SRN PORTIONS WHERE GREATER
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND AN INCREASE IN BOTH LIGHTNING AND
REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN OBSERVED DURING THE PAST HOUR. ACTIVITY
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR ALONG LOW
LEVEL JET AND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR HAS
BEEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
FROM TALLAHASSEE AND ATLANTA SHOWING MEAGER INSTABILITY WITH A
PRONOUNCED INVERSION AROUND 700 MB IN WARM SECTOR. AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF LINE REMAINS SHALLOW AND
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING
THE UPPER TROUGH BASE AND THIS FEATURE WILL EJECT ENEWD OVERNIGHT.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES EAST...ASCENT AND COOLING IN VICINITY
OF THE LINE MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN AND COOL THE INVERSION
LAYER. IF THIS OCCURS...MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WOULD DEVELOP WITH AN
ATTENDANT INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES GIVEN THE FAVORABLE WIND PROFILES. TRENDS ARE BEING
CLOSELY MONITORED.

..DIAL.. 01/07/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31458425 30688511 30138674 30478772 31198692 31688612
32468482 32328396 31458425

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