SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261654
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-262100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0046
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1054 AM CST MON JAN 26 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...NWRN AR...SWRN MO
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 261654Z - 262100Z
FREEZING DRIZZLE ALREADY COMMENCING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN
OK WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EWD INTO ERN OK...NWRN AR...AND SWRN MO.
ALTHOUGH RATES OF ACCUMULATION WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHT...A TRACE TO
0.01 INCH AN HOUR...EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z...WITH
MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS ERN OK...NRN AR...AND SRN MO
THEREAFTER.
ARCTIC AIRMASS AND SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE LINGERING ACROSS
MUCH OF OK/AR/MO THIS MORNING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE NRN PLAINS. PREVIOUSLY DRY AIRMASS IS UNDERGOING MODIFICATION AS
MOISTENING OF LOW LEVELS GRADUALLY OCCURS. 12Z SOUNDING ANALYSIS
SHOWS SATURATION HAS OCCURRED THROUGH 850 MB...AND A 35 KT SWLY LOW
LEVEL JET WILL ALLOW GREATER MOISTURE OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA COAST AND
THROUGH NRN MEXICO TO QUICKLY ADVECT NEWD. ALTHOUGH SATURATION WILL
BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO OCCUR...INITIALLY LIMITING MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS...EXPECT RATES TO INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z AS A STRONG
UPPER JET MAX BEGINS TO MOVE FROM SRN CA INTO THE ROCKIES THIS
EVENING. BY 00Z THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO HEIGHT FALLS AND THE APPROACHING UPPER JET. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST ACROSS SERN OK INTO NWRN AR AND SWRN MO AS THIS OCCURS.
..HURLBUT.. 01/26/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 34059610 34159769 34929854 35939798 36359708 37069565
37109359 36369227 35349191 34449287 34129466 34059610
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