SWODY1
SPC AC 092008
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 PM CST MON FEB 09 2009
VALID 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
CORRECTED STATES MENTIONED IN 2ND PARAGRAPH
WELL DEFINED NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NEB
AT MID AFTERNOON...AND IS FORECAST TO LIFT NEWD INTO MN OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK BAND OF CONVECTION...MOSTLY VOID OF LIGHTNING... WAS LOCATED
AHEAD OF THE UPPER WAVE AND STRETCHED FROM FAR SWRN MN SEWD INTO
SERN IA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD AND BEHIND THE LINE ARE IN THE
30S/40S...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A SLIVER OF ELEVATED CAPE BETWEEN
400 AND 600 MB...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES AS THE
CONVECTIVE LINE SHIFTS NEWD INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
IN THE DRY SLOT ACROSS ERN NEB...TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
LOWER/MID 50S...RESULTING IN STEEPER LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER WAVE MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS NERN NEB...FAR SERN SD AND NWRN IA. WHILE CONFIDENCE FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LOW...AND DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS IN STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR WOULD HAVE A RISK
TO ROTATE...WITH BRIEF SEVERE WIND/TORNADO POSSIBLE.
..IMY.. 02/09/2009
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