DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 020525
SWODY1
SPC AC 020524

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1124 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN FL PENINSULA...

...SYNOPSIS...

POLAR BRANCH TROUGH CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL UNDERGO FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THIS PERIOD
AS A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER THE GREAT PLAINS DIG SEWD INTO
THE SERN STATES. PRECEDING THIS TROUGH...THE LAST IN A SERIES OF
IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN SUBTROPICAL AIRSTREAM /NOW OVER THE NWRN GULF
OF MEXICO/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE NRN FL PENINSULA TODAY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE SURFACE
LOW WHICH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ENEWD ACROSS
THE CNTRL FL PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SEWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SERN U.S. TODAY AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

...FL...

BUOY/SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND GOES SOUNDER IPW DATA INDICATE A
WELL-DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME /CHARACTERIZED BY LOW TO MID 60S
DEWPOINTS/ CURRENTLY FROM THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO SWD THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO JUST S OF CUBA. CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL/ERN
GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WILL ENHANCE THE NWD/NEWD FLUX OF THIS RICHER
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE INTO AT LEAST THE SRN QUARTER OF THE FL
PENINSULA. WHILE LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE
INCREASE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION LATER TODAY
WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.

LARGE CLUSTER OF TSTMS CURRENTLY EVOLVING OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF
MEXICO WILL BE IN PROGRESS AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL/ERN GULF BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE/DEVELOP ONSHORE TODAY WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS LIKELY BEING
LOCATED ALONG AND S/SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THIS
CORRIDOR INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS /0-1
KM SHEAR OF 20-30 KT/ AND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER /0-6 KM SHEAR OF
50-60 KT/ FOR A THREAT OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL AND/OR BOWING
STRUCTURES. WHILE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD...A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA
LATER TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NW WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT.

..MEAD.. 02/02/2009

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