SWODY1
SPC AC 030526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST MON FEB 02 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST...
AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH THE
DAY ONE PERIOD...FEATURING FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING
EWD ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. WITHIN THIS BROADER
TROUGH...SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK WILL
DIG SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS BY
TONIGHT. IN THE LOW LEVELS...PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL EXIST OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC...THOUGH SECONDARY
CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TODAY OVER THE OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL
APPALACHIANS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ABOVE-MENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH.
AIR MASS OVER THE CONUS WILL REMAIN DRY AND STABLE IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLANTIC. SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM CNTRL/ERN KY INTO WRN
PARTS OF WV/VA INVOF SURFACE LOW WHERE STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY BELOW 700 MB. WHILE
A LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE...VERY COLD THERMAL PROFILES COUPLED
WITH THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE BUOYANCY WILL LIMIT A MORE ROBUST
THUNDER THREAT.
..MEAD.. 02/03/2009
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