SWODY1
SPC AC 121956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0156 PM CST THU FEB 12 2009
VALID 122000Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN TO FOUR CORNERS AREA...
AS A PROGRESSIVE FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE CONUS...WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY REFLECTS A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING EASTERN
NV/UT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
EASTWARD...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM FAR SOUTHERN NV INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
UT/CO AND NORTHERN PARTS OF AZ/NM. IN SPITE OF AMPLE FORCING/STEEP
LAPSE RATES...COOL NEAR-SURFACE THERMAL PROFILES AND WEAK BUOYANCY
/MUCAPE OF 100 J PER KG OR LESS/ SHOULD KEEP TSTM COVERAGE SPARSE.
...CENTRAL GULF COAST LATE TONIGHT...
AS LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES TONIGHT...THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A MODIFIED GULF AIRMASS WILL
RETURN NORTHWARD IN EARNEST TOWARD THE GULF COAST TONIGHT. PRIMARY
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION IS STILL EXPECTED TOWARD THE VERY END OF
THE PERIOD LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED TSTMS FORMING ACROSS SOUTHERN LA BY 09Z-12Z. NO SEVERE
TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH DAYBREAK FRIDAY.
..GUYER.. 02/12/2009
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