SWODY1
SPC AC 141959
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0159 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2009
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...TX/SOUTHERN OK TO GULF COAST STATES/NORTH FL...
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD ALONG/NORTH
OF THE WEST-EAST EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE LOCATED ALONG/JUST OFF THE
GULF COAST. WITH DRYING CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES DOMINANT INLAND
AMIDST NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES...THE MOST VIGOROUS TSTMS WILL REMAIN
OFFSHORE THROUGH TONIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...MUCAPE UP TO 500-600 J/KG
AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT SOME MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL ACROSS THE UPPER TX COASTAL
PLAIN INTO SOUTHERN LA.
FARTHER NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
PERSIST/SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTH TX/FAR SOUTHERN OK TOWARD
THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH RUC
ESTIMATED MUCAPE UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG /BASED AROUND 850 MB AND
ABOVE/...THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED BY A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC
LIFT REGIME AMIDST AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE.
..GUYER.. 02/14/2009
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