SWODY1
SPC AC 021259
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST MON FEB 02 2009
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN/S CNTRL FL...
...SYNOPSIS...
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR
48. NRN STREAM TROUGH NOW OVER THE UPR GRT LKS EXPECTED TO FURTHER
AMPLIFY AS UPSTREAM JET STREAK IN SASKATCHEWAN CONTINUES INTO THE MS
VLY. IN THE SRN BRANCH...A SERIES OF WEAK DISTURBANCES OVER THE NRN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD FURTHER WEAKEN AS THEY SHEAR ENE ACROSS FL AND
THE WRN ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE FEATURE NOW
IN TX. THE LATTER IMPULSE SHOULD REACH THE NWRN GULF BY EVE... AND
FOSTER DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC WAVE ALONG DIFFUSE W/E WARM FRONT NOW
SETTING UP OVER THE ERN GULF ALONG 26N. COLD FRONT NOW OVER THE
NWRN GULF SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...CLEARING
THE SE FL CST BY 12Z TUESDAY.
...SRN/S CNTRL FL...
GULF SFC WAVE NOW NEAR 26.5N/88.0 SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AS IT
CONTINUES E TOWARD THE WRN FL CST TODAY. MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENING
LIKELY WILL AWAIT APPROACH OF TX SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS THE SFC WAVE
REFORMS OFF THE E CST OF FL TONIGHT. IN THE MEAN TIME...
PERSISTENT LOW LVL SSW FLOW AHEAD OF WAVE WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
RICH MOISTURE NOW IN THE YUCATAN STRAIT AREA TO SPREAD NNE TOWARD
THE SRN THIRD OF THE FL PENINSULA. WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL
REMAIN WEAK...INFLUX OF MOISTURE AND MODEST SFC HEATING SHOULD BOOST
AFTN SBCAPE TO NEAR 500 J/KG...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SW AND
SERN FL CSTS.
LEAD CLUSTER OF GULF TSTMS NOW JUST E OF SFC WAVE SHOULD
MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF CLUSTER POSSIBLE OVER S FL BY MID TO
LATE AFTN. HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF SFC WAVE SHOULD FEATURE 50 KT DEEP
WLY SHEAR...WITH 0-1 KM VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 20-30 KT. COUPLED
WITH INCREASING MOISTURE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWING STRUCTURES. WHILE LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST
FOR ONE OR TWO TORNADOES.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS S FL BY MID EVE AS SFC WAVE
REFORMS OFF THE E FL CST AND LOW LVL FLOW VEERS. ANY THUNDER OF
SIGNIFICANCE WITH UPSTREAM COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN
WATERS OF THE ERN GULF AS THAT BOUNDARY CONTINUES SEWD IN WAKE OF
SFC WAVE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY.
..CORFIDI.. 02/02/2009
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