SWODY1
SPC AC 161605
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN CA COASTAL VALLEYS...
STRONG JET MAX THAT HAS ROTATED AROUND COLD LOW OFF NRN CA COAST
WILL BE APPROACHING SRN CA COAST THIS AFTN. VERY STRONG LOW/MID
LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE COASTAL SRN
CA...ENHANCED BY FORCED TERRAIN BACKING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
THE VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY INLAND HAS INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT OF
MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION THUS FAR. HOWEVER AS DEWPOINTS RISE A
LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON COASTAL AREAS AND UPPER LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING JET MAX STEEPENS LAPSE RATES TO GREATER
THAN 7C/KM...SBCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG COULD DEVELOP COASTAL
AREAS.
THE MORE FRONTAL TYPE BAND OF PCPN NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LA BASIN
EVEN WITH ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS HAD BEEN CHARACTERIZED BY LOW
LEVEL SHEAR COUPLETS OVER THE WATER WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE GREATER. ADDITIONAL POST-FRONTAL
MORE CONVECTIVE BANDS/ELEMENTS SHOULD MOVE ONSHORE THRU THE
AFTERNOON WITH A LITTLE GREATER THREAT OF WATERSPOUTS AND
FUNNELS/BRIEF TORNADO INLAND COASTAL AREAS...ASSOCIATED WITH
POSSIBLE MINI SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY VEER BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER JET MAX MOVES ACROSS SRN CA...RELAXING THE SHEAR AND THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS ALTHOUGH SOME HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY GOOD
UPDRAFT THRU THE DAY GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
..HALES.. 02/16/2009
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