SWODY1
SPC AC 132000
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0200 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2009
VALID 132000Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CENTRAL GULF STATES...
AMIDST A WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT REGIME...SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL REMAIN COMMON ALONG/NORTH OF A NORTHWARD-SHIFTING
MARINE WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. NORTH OF
THIS RETREATING BOUNDARY...A FEW OF THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD
PRODUCE MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS AMIDST
RUC-ESTIMATED MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG AND 30-40 KT OF CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR. FARTHER SOUTH...LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIMIT DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL/COVERAGE
ACROSS THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE INCREASING THROUGH
THE UPPER 60S F. NEVERTHELESS...A CONDITIONAL SURFACE-BASED SEVERE
THREAT FOR A TORNADO/DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS OWING TO AMPLE DEEP
LAYER/LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ALTHOUGH SURFACE
WINDS HAVE TENDED TO VEER SWLY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
...CA...
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS
CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN TODAY...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
MID-LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. MINIMAL
INSTABILITY WILL GREATLY LIMIT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY...THOUGH A
STRONGER CELL OR TWO COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL GIVEN COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT.
..GUYER.. 02/13/2009
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