SWODY1
SPC AC 270033
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 PM CST THU FEB 26 2009
VALID 270100Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM IL TO NERN TX...
...MID MS VALLEY TO NERN TX...
WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT MAX IS SHIFTING EAST ALONG THE MN/IA BORDER
WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ALONG THE KS/MO BORDER.
LARGE SCALE ASCENT REMAINS FOCUSED PRIMARILY WITHIN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT WHERE EXPANDING
PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS SPREADING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS COOLER
PRECIPITATION...STRONGEST CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS ARE FOCUSED ALONG
ADVANCING COLD FRONT FROM WCNTRL IL...SWWD INTO NERN OK. THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MORE MEANINGFUL INSTABILITY
EXISTS SOUTH OF I-70 OVER MO...PARTICULARLY SWRN MO INTO SERN OK/WRN
AR. THUNDERSTORMS FROM SGF TO FSM ARE INTENSIFYING WITHIN THIS
HIGHER ZONE OF INSTABILITY AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM SGF DEPICTS STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...7-7.5
C/KM...WITH ENOUGH BUOYANCY FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS...MUCAPE ROUGHLY
1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL
ENHANCE LINEAR DEVELOPMENT...STORM MODE REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISCRETE
ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AT LEAST. WITH TIME CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG
WIND SHIFT OVER SERN OK INTO PORTIONS OF NERN TX. A BROKEN SQUALL
LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS SHOULD THEN PROGRESS ACROSS MO/AR INTO
SRN IL LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER SRN MO INTO AR...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING
BEFORE CONVECTIVE MODE BECOME A BIT MORE LINEAR IN NATURE.
..DARROW.. 02/27/2009
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