SWODY1
SPC AC 030039
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 PM CST MON FEB 02 2009
VALID 030100Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE SRN FL
PENINSULA AND THE KEYS...
...S FL...
QUASI-LINEAR MCS COMPOSED OF A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND ORIENTED NE-SW
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN PENINSULA AND THE KEYS THROUGH 02Z.
SEVERAL CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS HAVE EXHIBITED ROTATION...PRIMARILY NEAR
AND W OF THE LOWER KEYS. 00Z EYW/MFL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
IMMEDIATE INFLOW AIR MASS HAS BECOME RELATIVELY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID 60S AND LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 10-13 G/KG.
HOWEVER...WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF AROUND 6 C/KM WERE LIMITING
MLCAPE TO AOB 500-700 J/KG.
00Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT SURFACE LOW IS NOW DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE PENINSULA /N OF ORL/ AND THE ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE IS
MAINTAINING SLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE ERN PENINSULA. RESULTANT
HODOGRAPHS /REF. 00Z MFL SOUNDING/ EXHIBIT PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH AROUND 25 KT OF 0-1 KM SHEAR. GIVEN
THE MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS...ENVIRONMENT
WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...THIS SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 02Z.
THEREAFTER...SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR ALONG PRIMARY COLD
FRONT MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE FL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MORE
MOIST/UNSTABLE.
FOR ADDITIONAL NEAR TERM GUIDANCE...SEE MCD 0064.
..MEAD.. 02/03/2009
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