SWODY2
SPC AC 010552
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1152 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2009
VALID 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SOUTH FL...
00Z MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS EVENING WITH OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF ERN U.S. TROUGH MONDAY AND THE ABSORPTION OF SRN STREAM
SPEED MAX INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE.
THE SRN STREAM SPEED MAX WILL BE THE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD
AS IT TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ITS AFFECT ON
SFC CYCLOGENESIS ALONG WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE ERN GULF BY LATE
AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST A WEAK SFC LOW WILL EVOLVE
ALONG PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN MOVE INLAND SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE EARLY EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
STRUGGLE TO RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO
THE LOWER 60S AT BEST. GIVEN A MARGINAL LAPSE RATE
ENVIRONMENT...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE RATHER MEAGER...FEW HUNDRED J/KG
MUCAPE. EVEN SO...SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY...CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP STORM ROTATION. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS GUSTY WINDS ARE THE GREATEST THREAT WITH LONGER
LIVED THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WITHIN THE
STRONGLY SHEARED AIRMASS AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
MOISTURE IS JUST TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
..DARROW.. 02/01/2009
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