SWODY3
SPC AC 130812
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2009
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DROPPING SSEWD ALONG THE PACIFIC NW COAST
WILL BEGIN TO EJECT EWD FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
ADVANCES EAST...REACHING THE TN VALLEY AND SERN U.S. SUNDAY. A
SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS IMPULSE RESULTING IN
SEWD ACCELERATION OF STALLED FRONT ALONG SRN PORTION OF THE GULF
COASTAL STATES.
...CNTRL AND ERN GULF COASTAL REGION THROUGH N FL...
APPROACHING UPPER JET ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN
COOL SECTOR ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST SOME
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WILL OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR WITH AN INCREASE IN
WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET FORECAST OVER THE NERN GULF AND NRN FL DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING
OVER THE CNTRL GULF COASTAL AREA WITHIN ZONE OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD DURING THE DAY ALONG THE MIGRATORY AND
STRENGTHENING WSWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE EARLY STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG WITH WEAKER LAPSE RATES WITH EWD
EXTENT ALONG THE GULF COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN LIMITED INSTABILITY.
IF SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS...THE CONVECTION COULD
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. AT THIS TIME
IT APPEARS THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
A LIMITING FACTOR DESPITE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR
ORGANIZED STORMS.
..DIAL.. 02/13/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment