SWOD48
SPC AC 030753
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 AM CST TUE FEB 03 2009
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
...DAY4/FRI THROUGH DAY6/SUN...
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT IN NOAM PATTERN EVOLUTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. A LEADING WRN U.S./ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WILL DEAMPLIFY AND ACCELERATE NEWD FROM VICINITY OF FOUR-CORNERS TO
SERN CANADA WITH LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY LIKELY INHIBITING TSTM
POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
...DAY7/MON THROUGH DAY8/TUE...
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IN THE TIMING OF
THE STRONGER/TRAILING WRN TROUGH EXPECTED TO INITIALLY EVOLVE AS A
LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER SRN CA/BAJA MEXICO AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AND THEN EJECT EWD TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS MON-TUE. GIVEN A PERIOD OF
WEAK TO MODEST SLY MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DYNAMIC MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM...ORGANIZED TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE MS VALLEY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BASED ON LATEST GFS AND MREF. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THIS SCENARIO
IS INTRODUCED WHEN REVIEWING LATEST ECMWF...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
NAEFS...WHICH BOTH INDICATE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFERENCES AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES DEVELOPS ACROSS
SW/SCNTRL U.S.
IF GFS/MREF WERE THE PERFECT PROGS...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS POTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON DAY7/MON. ECMWF
FORECASTS WOULD SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
DAY7 OR EVEN INTO DAY8/TUE. GIVEN THESE DISCREPANCIES AND FORECAST
RANGE...AND ADDED UNCERTAINTIES WITH REGARD AIR MASS QUALITY...THE
PREDICTABILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER IS TOO LOW FOR AN EXTENDED OUTLOOK
AT THIS TIME.
..CARBIN.. 02/03/2009
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