Monday, February 16, 2009

DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 160854
SWOD48
SPC AC 160854

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009

VALID 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...

SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS NRN AND POSSIBLY
INTO CNTRL FL THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SWD. HOWEVER...THE
EXPECTED WEAK THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY LIMIT OVERALL
SEVERE POTENTIAL DESPITE PRESENCE OF STRONG KINEMATIC PROFILES.

GFS...ECMWF AND MREF ENSEMBLES ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT UPPER
PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME WITH A
TROUGH IN THE EAST BY DAY 4...AND CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST DAY 6 OR 7
WHEN UNCERTAINTY BEGINS TO INCREASE. OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
BE LOW WITH THIS PATTERN WHICH WILL MAINTAIN OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE
GULF.

..DIAL.. 02/16/2009

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