MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0061

ACUS11 KWNS 012104
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012103
LAZ000-TXZ000-012300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0061
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX THROUGH SW LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 012103Z - 012300Z

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO POSE A THREAT FOR MAINLY
ISOLATED HAIL FROM SERN TX INTO SW LA THROUGH AROUND SUNSET.
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF ANY SEVERE EVENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW.

THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN A
LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE WRN GULF THROUGH SERN TX
AND SW LA. GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED
ACROSS SERN TX WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAVE MIXED OUT RESULTING IN MLCAPE
FROM 500 TO 800 J/KG. FARTHER EAST ACROSS LA...A ZONE OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND WEAKER
INSTABILITY. LATEST VWP DATA SHOW MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR OVER SE TX
WITH SMALL LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND 30-35 KT BULK SHEAR. THIS
VERTICAL WIND PROFILE MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING WEAK MID
LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT FOR HAIL.

SOMEWHAT LARGER 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS EXIST FROM EXTREME SE TX INTO SW
LA. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MODEL FORECAST DATA INDICATE
A GRADUAL VEERING AND DECREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH TIME.
NEVERTHELESS...AN ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEXT
HOUR OR TWO AS STORMS CROSS INTO EXTREME SE TX AND SW LA WHERE LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE. OVERALL THREAT IN THIS
REGION WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY.

..DIAL.. 02/01/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 29549451 29229534 29749555 30629419 30609298 29859295
29699409 29549451

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