SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020430
LAZ000-TXZ000-020600-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 PM CST SUN FEB 01 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF ERN/SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 020430Z - 020600Z
LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...WHERE THE AXIS OF STRONGER
AFTERNOON HEATING OCCURRED. AS A RESULT...SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER
STRENGTHENING OF ONGOING STORMS NEAR THE FRONT APPEARS UNLIKELY.
BUT...ACTIVITY MAY BE SLOW TO WEAKEN LATE THIS EVENING...DUE TO
CONTINUING MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...AND AT LEAST A WEAK LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MOIST POTENTIALLY
WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
SOMEWHAT MODEST...COOL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH FAIRLY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR HAIL IN
STRONGER STORMS WITHIN BAND SLOWLY APPROACHING THE UPPER TEXAS
COASTAL PLAIN AND SABINE VALLEY THROUGH 06-09Z. SOME OF THIS COULD
BRIEFLY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS.
..KERR.. 02/02/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 30889664 31119610 31529517 32259453 32539421 31839370
30739346 30099385 29689513 29719621 29919665 30419677
30889664
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