SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030013
FLZ000-030145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0613 PM CST MON FEB 02 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PEN AND KEYS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 030013Z - 030145Z
A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN BROADER SCALE
AMPLIFIED CYCLONIC FLOW NOW APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
INTO THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE LOWER KEYS.
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE APPEARS TO BE PROVIDING THE
PRIMARY SUPPORT FOR THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE BAND APPROACHING THE
MIAMI AND KEY WEST AREAS. AND...THE DEVELOPMENT OF RATHER LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITHIN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE IS CONTRIBUTING TO AT LEAST
A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF
SUPERCELLS WITH TORNADOES...WITHIN AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE.
THE LACK OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION IN THE WAKE OF THE RECENT COLD
INTRUSION SEEMS TO THE PRIMARY FACTOR MITIGATING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SEVERE THREAT. DESPITE ONGOING LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...INCLUDING
SURFACE DEW POINT RISES THROUGH THE MID/UPPER 60S...THE PRIMARY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS BECOMING CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LOWER KEYS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED TORNADO/DAMAGING
WIND THREAT COULD STILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE MIAMI METRO... BETWEEN NOW AND
01-02Z...BEFORE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DIMINISHES AS THE UPPER WAVE
PROGRESSES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA.
..KERR.. 02/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...
LAT...LON 24248263 25028196 25798140 26518057 26548010 25707987
24958020 24318089 23858182 23938275 24248263
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