SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031544
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-031945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0944 AM CST TUE FEB 03 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IND...SWRN OH...NERN KY...WRN WV
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 031544Z - 031945Z
MESOSCALE BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ALONG THE CNTRL OH RIVER VALLEY WITH LOCALIZED SNOWFALL RATES OF 1
TO 2 IN/HR...LIKELY AFFECTING AREAS FROM CINCINNATI OH TO JACKSON
KY/HUNTINGTON WV.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS BANDED PRECIPITATION ECHOES STRETCHING
FROM E-CNTRL IND INTO N-CNTRL KY...N/E OF A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW
CENTERED NEAR LOUISVILLE KY AT 15Z. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WERE
REPORTED FROM 13-15Z AT INDIANAPOLIS IND AS THESE BANDS PASSED
THROUGH. DESPITE A RATHER INNOCUOUS APPEARING SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER-SCALE ERN CONUS
TROUGH...NEARLY ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE MAINTENANCE OF A
LOWER-LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS /FROM 800 TO 700 MB/ ATOP A BENT-BACK
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB. THIS WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF MESOSCALE
FORCED ASCENT THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...LEADING TO
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION. 00Z 4-KM WRF-NSSL/NMM ALONG WITH THE
12Z NAM SUGGEST THAT SNOW RATES MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GRADUALLY STEEPEN AND SHALLOW BUOYANCY
RESULTS IN POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW.
..GRAMS.. 02/03/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...
LAT...LON 38898208 38388170 37798193 37578242 37698296 38298402
38898508 39488550 39768520 39698410 38898208
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