Tuesday, February 10, 2009

MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0083

ACUS11 KWNS 101929
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101929
KSZ000-OKZ000-102130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0083
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0129 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...N CENTRAL AND NERN OK INTO S CENTRAL/SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 101929Z - 102130Z

THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SLOWLY ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND NERN OK AND NWD INTO S CENTRAL AND SERN KS. NEW WW MAY
BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER THIS REGION.

LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY REVEAL INCREASING CONVECTION
ACROSS N CENTRAL OK...WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW OBSERVED
INVOF END. ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT STORMS ARE HIGH-BASED /NEAR 700
MB/ PER 17Z LMN /LAMONT OK/ RAOB. WITH ONLY MINIMAL INSTABILITY
WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIMITED IN
THE SHORT TERM.

HOWEVER...SLOW DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SPREAD SLOWLY NWD. AS
THIS OCCURS...EXPECT A SLOW INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR LOWER-BASED
STORMS -- AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL. GREATEST THREAT WILL
LIKELY EXIST E OF A LINE FROM EMP TO PNC...WHICH COULD EVENTUALLY
REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE. WHILE PRIMARY THREATS IN THIS REGION WOULD
LIKELY BE HAIL AND LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO LESS FAVORABLE
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...ENOUGH TORNADO THREAT COULD EVOLVE TO
REQUIRE TORNADO VERSUS SEVERE WATCH ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 02/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36229767 36939745 37879654 38549546 38449482 37419491
36799534 36269624 36229767

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