MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0084

ACUS11 KWNS 102016
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102016
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-102215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0084
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CST TUE FEB 10 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...NE TX/SE OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 102016Z - 102215Z

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. TORNADOES...LARGE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE...WITH A TORNADO WATCH
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE IS BEGINNING TO SETUP
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION REGION AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY...ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER NORTHEAST
TEXAS...INITIATED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION WITHIN A CONTINUING LOW
LEVEL JET...IS GRADUALLY GAINING STRENGTH AS LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ERODE
AND SURFACE HEATING/INSTABILITY INCREASES. SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
WIND FIELDS ARE BEGINNING TO STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE HELICITY VALUES TO AROUND 200-250. 18Z
DFW SOUNDING SHOWS CAP HAS ERODED ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MLCAPE
AROUND 1500 J/KG ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR DECREASING EASTWARD TO
AROUND 1000 J/KG. IF CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS NE TX/SE OK CONTINUES
TO STRENGTHEN...A WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED...WITH LARGE HAIL THE
INITIAL THREAT. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GRADUALLY INCREASES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

..LEVIT.. 02/10/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 35109665 35549650 35539555 35539475 35189459 34929444
34639448 34329441 33619442 33159444 32729434 32449441
32139447 32079525 32079555 32069621 32099653 32159686
32299705 32769721 33329712 33769689 34739677 35109665

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