SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161703
CAZ000-162100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0115
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1103 AM CST MON FEB 16 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 161703Z - 162100Z
OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED ASCENT WILL FAVOR SNOWFALL RATES OF 2-3
IN/HR ALONG THE WRN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.
UPPER AIR OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A S/W TROUGH
PIVOTING EAST AROUND THE SOUTH SIDE OF A CLOSED LOW POSITIONED OFF
THE NRN CA COAST. LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION AND SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE THIS EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF CA DURING THE AFTERNOON...REACHING THE SIERRAS BY
21Z. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AND VEER TO
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WITH THE PASSING WAVE...RESULTING IN
TRAJECTORIES PERPENDICULAR TO MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS WILL YIELD
INCREASING ASCENT ALONG THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE SIERRAS...GIVING
WAY TO SNOWFALL RATES ABOVE 4500 FT MSL OF 2-3 IN/HR BY 21Z.
..GARNER.. 02/16/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.
ATTN...WFO...VEF...REV...HNX...STO...
LAT...LON 37471857 37311843 37041830 36431805 35891796 35641801
35551810 35541810 35441846 35531864 35771873 35981876
36321884 36581893 36731905 37081942 37311966 37681997
37862013 38182033 38622055 38702024 38521986 38041929
37471857
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