SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180345
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-OKZ000-180545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0945 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN/ERN AR...NERN LA...WRN/NRN
MS...SWRN TN...OZARKS OF AR/MO/OK.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22...
VALID 180345Z - 180545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 22
CONTINUES.
CONTINUE VALID PORTIONS WW. WFO SHV COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CLEARED AS
STRONGEST CONVECTION WITHIN WW HAS MOVED NEWD OVER SERN AR AND
EXTREME NERN LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL FOLLOW RELATED PLUME OF STG LOW
LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT ENEWD ACROSS PORTIONS NRN MS AND
SWRN TN...WHERE PARCELS ARE LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY TO LFC.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE FARTHER SW ACROSS SRN AR...WHICH
WOULD MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAVORABLE VERTICAL
SHEAR -- WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES 45-60KT. ELEVATED
MUCAPE SHOULD REMAIN IN 800-1200 J/KG RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF
AR...SPREADING/EXPANDING EWD ACROSS MID-SOUTH REGION AS THETAE
ADVECTION CONTINUES ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
NWRN PORTION OF THIS REGIME ALSO IS CONTRIBUTING TO RAPID...ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER NERN OK THAT WILL MOVE OVER PORTIONS SRN
MO/NRN AR...WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL. AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW.
..EDWARDS.. 02/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...TSA...
LAT...LON 33279012 32899133 33079187 33619251 34739327 35779493
36829432 36949120 36308925 35958811 35438790 34738847
34178898 33279012
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