MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0125

ACUS11 KWNS 181958
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 181957
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-182130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0157 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL GA INTO SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181957Z - 182130Z

TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENT IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES. CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

RECENT TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE DEEPENING
CUMULUS/EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM NEAR CSG SSWWD TO JUST E OF CEW.
THINNING HIGH CLOUDINESS COUPLED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
WARMING/MOISTENING WITH PASSAGE OF SURFACE WARM FRONT IS RESULTING
IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION. MODIFICATION OF 18Z LIX/TLH SOUNDINGS
FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPE MAY BE
APPROACHING 800-1000 J/KG. WARM NOSE OBSERVED NEAR AND JUST ABOVE
700 MB MAY BE CURRENTLY RESTRICTING MORE ROBUST UPDRAFT
EVOLUTION...HOWEVER THIS WILL BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH TIME AS
ENVIRONMENT UNDERGOES FURTHER MOISTENING.

LOCAL VWPS INDICATE THAT MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS
FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS /I.E. 0-1 KM SHEAR OF 25 KT AND 0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 60-65 KT/. PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA PATTERN SHOULD
CONDITION THE ENVIRONMENT SUCH THAT TSTMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...THOUGH TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY MORE INTENSE SUPERCELLS THAT MAY BECOME
ESTABLISHED.

..MEAD.. 02/18/2009

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 31348640 31948589 32788549 33328473 33448416 32958328
31618328 30578407 30008459 29848502 30108574 30568650
31348640

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