SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182040
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-182215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0240 PM CST WED FEB 18 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL WV
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182040Z - 182215Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
HAIL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP E OF WW 23 BY 21Z. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED IN THIS AREA.
AS OF 2030Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A WSW-ENE ORIENTED
BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS FROM LEE TO JOHNSON COUNTIES IN NERN KY MOVING
270/45 KT. 20Z RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS SUGGESTS THAT THIS CLUSTER OF
TSTMS IS ON NERN EDGE OF PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS WHICH IS
DEVELOPING EWD/NEWD ACROSS WV. WHILE THE OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY IS SMALL /MLCAPE OF A COUPLE HUNDRED J PER KG/ IT IS
SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN ONGOING STORMS GIVEN STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.
AREA VWPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VERY STRONG AMBIENT SHEAR WITH WLY
WINDS AT 50 KT AROUND 1 KM AGL. AS SUCH...ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE FOR THE MAINTENANCE OF ONGOING STORMS INTO WRN WV BY 21Z.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREATS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.
..MEAD.. 02/18/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...
LAT...LON 38168257 38658241 39078174 38838097 38278071 37858084
37378136 37308177 38168257
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