WATCHES: Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 22

WWUS20 KWNS 180108
SEL2
SPC WW 180108
ARZ000-LAZ000-MSZ000-TNZ000-180800-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 22
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
705 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2009

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
FAR SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 705 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST OF EL
DORADO ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE EVENING
WITHIN BROAD LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME. 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WITH PARCELS TAPPING LOW LEVEL MOISTENING NEAR
H85 EXPANDING NEWD INTO THE MID SOUTH. THIS WILL SUPPORT MODEST
MUCAPE WITHIN STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR. STRONGER CORES WILL BE
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL...WITH ELEVATED SUPERCELLS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL BY LATER THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.

...EVANS

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