SWODY1
SPC AC 030551
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST MON MAR 02 2009
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THROUGH
TONIGHT. AS AN UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
STATES...AN UPSTREAM BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ONTO THE
ORE/NORTHERN CA COAST. AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PIVOT
EAST-NORTHWARD ON THE PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW...SHOWERS/ISOLATED
TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND COASTAL/INTERIOR VALLEY PORTIONS OF CA...WITH ISOLATED
TSTMS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS
AND CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY
VOID OF TSTMS.
...NORTH CENTRAL CA/SACRAMENTO VALLEY...
AS THE COLD UPPER LOW GRADUALLY NEARS THE COAST /-30C AT 500
MB/...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
OVERSPREAD NORTHERN CA EARLY IN THE DAY...WITH A SUBSEQUENT IMPULSE
REACHING NORTHERN CA LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A RELATIVELY QUIESCENT
LARGE SCALE REGIME WILL GENERALLY EXIST ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL CA
DURING THE AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT CLOUD BREAKS/HEATING COULD RESULT
IN A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG OF SBCAPE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
INTERIOR VALLEY. WHEN COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OROGRAPHICALLY
AIDED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...A MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL
POSSIBILITY WILL EXIST FOR A FEW QUASI-ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS
CAPABLE OF HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.
..GUYER/JEWELL.. 03/03/2009
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