SWODY1
SPC AC 101258
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 AM CDT TUE MAR 10 2009
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX NE INTO LWR
MI...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN EXPECTED TO SOMEWHAT DEAMPLIFY OVER THE LWR 48 BEGINNING
THIS PERIOD AS FAIRLY POTENT CO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ACCELERATES ENE TO
THE UPR GRT LKS...AND LARGER SCALE TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN
RCKYS RETREATS NE INTO CNTRL CANADA.
AT LWR LVLS...SFC WAVE NOW IN NRN MO SHOULD MOVE NE INTO NRN IL
LATER TODAY...BEFORE SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENING AND ACCELERATING NNE
INTO ERN ONTARIO TONIGHT/EARLY WED. AS THIS OCCURS...TRAILING COLD
FRONT LIKELY WILL INTENSIFY AND SURGE SEWD...REACHING THE WRN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS...NRN AL...NRN LA...AND E TX BY 12Z WED. THE
FRONT SHOULD SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.
...ARKLATEX NE THROUGH THE MID MS VLY INTO MI...
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS/STORMS IN WAKE OF LEAD UPR DISTURBANCE NOW
OVER IND/MI EXPECTED TO PERSIST INVOF DIFFUSE WARM FRONT ACROSS
NRN/ERN MO AND PARTS OF IL/IND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. STORMS
SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP SW ALONG MO COLD FRONT INTO NW AR AND PERHAPS NE
OK BY LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NE ACROSS REGION...CLOUDS AND
MODEST MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...WITH AVERAGE
MLCAPE LIKELY TO REMAIN AOB 500 J/KG.
THE GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS LATE THIS AFTN SHOULD EXIST FROM NW
AR/SW MO NE INTO CNTRL IL. STORMS IN THIS CORRIDOR COULD YIELD A
COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND.
BY EVE...THE EFFECTS OF WEAK INSTABILITY MAY BE PARTLY OFFSET BY
INCREASING UVV AS CO UPR TROUGH ASSUMES A MORE NEUTRAL OR SLIGHT
NEGATIVE TILT AND REACHES THE MID/UPR MS VLY. THE STRONGEST DPVA
WILL AFFECT WI AND UPR MI. BUT ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELD /WITH
80-100 KT SW FLOW AT 500 MB/ WILL OVERSPREAD WARM SECTOR OF
DEEPENING SFC LOW. COUPLED WITH EXPECTED STRENGTHENING OF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...SETUP SHOULD YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR FORCED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
SRN MI SW INTO IND...IL...SE MO...AND AR...AND AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
DMGG WIND/HAIL.
THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED AS
THE FRONT SURGES E BEYOND AXIS OF GREATEST LOW LVL MOISTURE OVER OH
VLY. THE SVR THREAT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER FROM KY/TN SW TO THE
ARKLATEX...WHERE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR WILL EXIST.
..CORFIDI/HURLBUT.. 03/10/2009
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