SWODY1
SPC AC 141934
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MS DELTA/CENTRAL GULF COAST...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A COUPLE OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN A
WSWLY FLOW REGIME EXTENDING FROM NRN MEXICO THROUGH TX/LOWER MS
VALLEY TO THE ERN SEABOARD. THE IMPULSES...ONE ENTERING S TX AND
THE SECOND APPROACHING THE LOWER MS VALLEY...WILL PROVIDE ASCENT FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION THIS FORECAST PERIOD. EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL WARM SECTOR EXTENDING INLAND
FROM FAR SERN MS THROUGH SRN AL TO SWRN GA. DESPITE SOME SURFACE
HEATING...WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MAINTAINING ONLY WEAK
INSTABILITY. THESE THERMODYNAMICS HAVE LIMITED TSTM COVERAGE SO FAR
TODAY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION AS HAS BEEN NOTED WITH A COUPLE OF
STORMS TRACKING FROM SERN MS INTO SWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE VERY WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE AN
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
...AZ/NM/SRN CO...
SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-22 C AT
H5/ ATTENDANT TO THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES COMBINED WITH
SURFACE HEATING HAS PROMOTED STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS ALONG WITH MID
LEVEL MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN TSTMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ
INTO W/SW NM. THE ONSET OF SURFACE COOLING THIS EVENING AND THE
EVENTUAL EWD SHIFT OF THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL ARE EXPECTED TO AID IN
THE DECREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID EVENING. WEAK
INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 03/14/2009
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