SWODY1
SPC AC 061948
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0148 PM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
VALID 062000Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT OVER THE LOWER MO
VALLEY...
...CNTRL PLAINS INTO LOWER MO VALLEY...
LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
DEEPENING LEE LOW OVER ERN CO WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN KS
TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH KS AND MO. A
MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /I.E. LOWER TO MID 50S DEWPOINTS/ RESIDING
ALONG AND S OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR AS OF 19Z WILL CONCURRENTLY SPREAD
NWD INTO KS TONIGHT ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ.
WELL-DEFINED EML OBSERVED BY 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS WILL LIKELY CAP
DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
ELEVATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS STILL ANTICIPATED LATER TONIGHT NEAR/N
OF WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WHERE WARM/MOIST ADVECTIONS
AND CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED WITHIN EXIT REGION OF LLJ. 40-50
KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RESULTANT MUCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW
SUSTAINED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.
..MEAD.. 03/06/2009
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