SWODY1
SPC AC 150058
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT SAT MAR 14 2009
VALID 150100Z - 151200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL AND NERN GULF COASTAL AREA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A WEAK SURFACE LOW IN ERN MS SSWWD THROUGH
SERN LA. WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH SE AL INTO NRN
FL. A MOIST WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD INLAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S ACROSS SRN
MS...SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE. DESPITE THE INFLUX OF RICHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...INSTABILITY REMAINS VERY MARGINAL DUE TO WEAK
LAPSE RATES. THE 00Z RAOBS FROM LIX AND TLH BOTH INDICATE MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER AND MUCAPE BELOW 200
J/KG. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS MANIFESTED BY THE LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THROUGH WARM SECTOR.
A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL PERSIST FROM THE CNTRL GULF COAST REGION
NEWD INTO ERN PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES EJECTING NEWD OUT OF BROAD SRN STREAM UPPER
TROUGH. AN INCREASE IN HODOGRAPH SIZE MAY OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR LATER
TONIGHT AS THE SWLY LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME ROTATION HAS...AT TIMES...BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THE LOW TOPPED CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST. DESPITE
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL AND BULK SHEAR FOR A CONDITIONAL
THREAT OF A BRIEF TORNADO...IT STILL APPEARS ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED BY THE VERY MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.
...AZ AND NM...
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF AZ AND NM WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
..DIAL.. 03/15/2009
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