SWODY1
SPC AC 061300
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0700 AM CST FRI MAR 06 2009
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR MO INTO THE MID MS
VLYS...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL EVOLVE TOWARD A SPLIT FLOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE
NATION THROUGH SAT AS /1/ A MAJOR PORTION OF POSITIVE TILT TROUGH
NOW OVER WRN NOAM HEADS E ACROSS SRN SK/MB...AND /2/ SPEED MAX NOW
OVER WA/ORE CONTINUES SSE TO CARVE AN UPR LOW OVER THE GRT BASIN.
AT THE SAME TIME...HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND SLIGHTLY FROM THE MID MS
VLY TO THE MID ATLANTIC CST IN WAKE OF IMPULSE NOW CROSSING THE UPR
GRT LKS.
AT THE SFC...WRN PART OF FRONT NOW BECOMING STNRY FROM OK TO IL/MI
SHOULD RETURN N ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO LATER TODAY/TONIGHT AS CO
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING GRT BASIN TROUGH.
...LWR MO TO MID MS VLYS...
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SHOULD STRENGTHEN OVER THE CNTRL STATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AS DEVELOPING CONFLUENT ZONE ALOFT MAINTAINS SFC RIDGE
OVER THE DAKOTAS...AND SSWLY RETURN FLOW/LLJ INCREASE OVER THE SRN
PLNS. THE BOUNDARY LIKELY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR TSTMS
TONIGHT/SAT AS INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE AND DEVELOPMENT OF JET
ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT /IN ASSOCIATION WITH GRT BASIN LOW/ ENHANCE
DEEP ASCENT ALONG IT.
SATELLITE PW AND SFC/850 MB DATA SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
TO THE LWR MO/MID MS VLY WILL REMAIN RATHER MODEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH PW VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1 INCH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. NEVERTHELESS...MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP. IN
ADDITION...AMPLE /40-50 KT/...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL CLOUD LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO FOSTER HAIL DEVELOPMENT.
COMBINATION OF EML CAPPING AND ABSENCE OF DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT
SHOULD PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT THROUGH THIS EVE.
STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID LVL FORCING SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT
STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 07/06Z. THESE MAY FIRST FORM OVER PARTS OF
NET KS/SE NEB...ON NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SSWLY LLJ...BEFORE
MOVING/DEVELOPING E ALONG FRONT THROUGH 12Z SAT. ONE OR MORE
LOOSELY ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STORMS MAY FORM...WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY LIKELY TO BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON N SIDE OF FRONT. DESPITE
ELEVATED NATURE...COMBINATION OF 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND STRONG
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR COULD YIELD A FEW SUSTAINED/POSSIBLY ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH SVR HAIL.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/06/2009
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment