SWODY1
SPC AC 301953
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2009
VALID 302000Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF ERN KS...CNTRL
AND ERN OK THROUGH NE TX...
...ERN KS/OK THIS EVENING AND NE TX TONIGHT...
CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SURFACE
LOW IN SRN NEB THROUGH CNTRL KS...NW OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE
CONTINUES MOVING EWD AND SEWD. SRN END OF FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF
MERGING WITH DEVELOPING DRYLINE THAT EXTENDS FROM SW TX NWD THROUGH
WRN OK. AXIS OF MODIFIED CP AIR WITH MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AS FAR
NORTH AS SRN OK WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING NWD ALONG STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY EARLY EVENING FROM ERN
KS INTO CNTRL/ERN OK WHERE DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG COLD FRONT
WILL BE ENHANCED BY EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. DESPITE THE LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST INSTABILITY...STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF SUPERCELLS.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE INTO LINES. LARGE HAIL
AND ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
..DIAL.. 03/30/2009
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2009/
...ERN KS/OK THIS EVENING INTO NE TX TONIGHT...
A STRONG/PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NM/CO/WY WILL MOVE EWD TO
THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH THE CORRIDOR FROM CENTRAL
NEB SWD TO CENTRAL OK LATER TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
PRECEDED BY A SURFACE CYCLONE IN S CENTRAL NEB...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS CENTRAL KS INTO THE OK PANHANDLE...AND A
SECOND FRONTAL SEGMENT ACROSS NM. THE KS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SEWD INTO OK AND INTERSECT THE LEE TROUGH/DEVELOPING DRYLINE
ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN OK BY THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE IS RETURNING QUICKLY NWD ACROSS THE TX COAST WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE LOW-MID 60S. EXPECT DEWPOINTS OF
50-55 F TO SPREAD NWD ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SRN KS BY THIS
EVENING...BENEATH A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL STRONGLY
CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNTIL THIS EVENING.
SOME COOLING IS EXPECTED FROM THE W IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL LIKELY WEAKEN SUBSTANTIALLY BY 00Z ALONG
AND N OF THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT TRIPLE POINT. THEREAFTER...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT NEAR AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN KS/OK. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY TAKE THE FORM OF A LINE GIVEN INCREASING LINEAR FORCING BY
LATE EVENING AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VECTORS/DEEP LAYER FLOW ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. INSTABILITY SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY STRONG
/MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG/ TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THESE STORMS...MAINLY FROM 00-06Z.
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