SWODY1
SPC AC 140054
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 PM CDT FRI MAR 13 2009
VALID 140100Z - 141200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SERN LA AREA...
A QUASISTATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WRN GULF NEWD THROUGH SWRN
LA...SRN MS...THEN EWD ALONG THE GULF COASTAL AREA. A MOIST WARM
SECTOR REMAINS OVER SE LA AND SRN MS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS
RANGE FROM 60F INLAND TO AROUND 65F ALONG THE COAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH TX WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT EJECTS ENEWD INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY TONIGHT. MODEST ASCENT ATTENDING THE EJECTING
IMPULSE WILL RESULT IN A WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE NWRN
GULF TRACKING NEWD ALONG THE FRONT INTO LA AND SRN MS. MODELS
INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY WITHIN REGION OF HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY...PRIMARILY ON COOL SIDE OF THE
FRONT. HOWEVER...SOME INCREASE IN SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR IN WARM SECTOR ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN SIZE OF 0-1 KM
HODOGRAPHS.
EVENING RADAR DATA SHOW A CLUSTER OF LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS JUST
NE OF SURFACE LOW OVER THE NWRN GULF ABOUT 40 NM OFF THE LA COAST.
SOME EVIDENCE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. THE CLUSTER WILL CONTINUE NEWD AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT
PARTS OF SRN LA LATER THIS EVENING. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS IN LOW
LEVEL HODOGRAPHS SIZE AND CONTINUED MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITIES FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAK BUOYANCY
AND LAPSE RATES INLAND FROM THE COAST.
...AZ AND NM...
WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM
AND AZ WILL CONTINUE A DECREASING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILIZES.
..DIAL.. 03/14/2009
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