SWODY1
SPC AC 130056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT THU MAR 12 2009
VALID 130100Z - 131200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...AZ THROUGH NM AND SW TX...
ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH ERN
AZ AND NM...REACHING WRN TX LATE TONIGHT. PRESENCE OF STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PROMOTE THE EWD
EXPANSION OF CONVECTION. HOWEVER...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
BECOME INCREASINGLY SPARSE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES.
...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL AND ERN TX...
EARLY EVENING RADAR DATA SHOW ELEVATED CONVECTION INCREASING FROM
THE CNTRL TX COAST THROUGH S CNTRL TX...MOST LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH BACKING AND MODEST INCREASE OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WHICH IS
ENHANCING ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE STABLE SURFACE LAYER. THE 00Z
RAOB FROM CRP INDICATES A LAYER OF MARGINAL MUCAPE THAT IS DEEP
ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION...AND A SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED NEAR PALACIOS.
FARTHER INLAND...WEAKER INSTABILITY EXISTS DUE TO MORE LIMITED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SOME COOLING ALOFT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS
REGION OVERNIGHT WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. DEEPENING OF THE CONVECTIVE LAYER MIGHT
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES FARTHER INLAND LATER
TONIGHT.
..DIAL.. 03/13/2009
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