SWODY1
SPC AC 161241
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 AM CDT MON MAR 16 2009
VALID 161300Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A POSITIVE TILT MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MS VALLEY
WILL MOVE EWD TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY TUESDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT ACROSS SRN AL/GA WILL MOVE LITTLE
TODAY...AND THEN SAG SWD OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE PASSES.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THE
SEVERE THREAT FROM THE FL PANHANDLE INTO S/SW GA WILL BE
LIMITED...HOWEVER...BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GRADUALLY
WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR.
ELSEWHERE...A BELT OF FAST WSWLY MID-UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER
THE PAC NW AND NRN ROCKIES...WITH PERIODS OF ASCENT FOCUSED BY
EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING INLAND. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT /-35 C AT 500 MB/ ON THE CYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET
WILL SUPPORT WEAK INSTABILITY /SBCAPE OF 100-200 J/KG/ ACROSS WRN WA
IN THE ONSHORE REGIME...WHERE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
..THOMPSON/GRAMS.. 03/16/2009
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