SWODY1
SPC AC 211939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT SAT MAR 21 2009
VALID 212000Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE
COAST OF CA WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS. BENEATH THE RIDGE...A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS AN AXIS OF
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE RUC INITIATES
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS AXIS OF INSTABILITY FROM ERN WY
SWD INTO ERN CO EARLY THIS EVENING WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
QUITE STEEP. IF THIS OCCURS...THE PROFILER NEAR LARAMIE WY SUGGESTS
VERTICAL SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE THREAT WITH 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES OF ABOUT 35 KT. ACCORDING TO THE RUC...0-3 KM LAPSE
RATES ARE APPROACHING 10 C/KM SUGGESTING A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT COULD ALSO EXIST ESPECIALLY IF THE CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP
FURTHER EAST ACROSS SW SD AND WRN NEB CLOSE TO THE WRN EDGE OF THE
LOW-LEVEL JET. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...LOW-END PROBABILITIES SEEM WARRANTED ATTM.
..BROYLES.. 03/21/2009
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