SWODY1
SPC AC 021238
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST MON MAR 02 2009
VALID 021300Z - 031200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
A STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES TODAY...WITH BROAD RIDGING OCCURRING OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NATION. ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH LIES OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD.
...CA/NV/ORE/ID...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL FEATURES
EMBEDDED IN FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM 29N/130W INTO
PARTS OF CA/NV/ORE/ID. THESE WAVES ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE ARE TWO AREAS
WHERE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MIGHT OCCUR. THE FIRST AREA
IS OVER THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MUCAPE VALUES OF UP TO 300 J/KG...AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES MIGHT ENHANCE THE THREAT OF LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WOULD POSE A RISK OF GUSTY
WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO. FARTHER
NORTHEAST...MODELS INDICATE THE RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS
ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN ORE/NORTHERN NV/WESTERN ID LATER TODAY.
OVERALL...THE RISK OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS DOES NOT APPEAR TO
WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME.
..HART.. 03/02/2009
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